報告書番号

Y15023

タイトル（和文）

2030年までの地域の経済・産業展望－経済成長の牽引役となる産業は何か－

タイトル（英文）

An Outlook for the Japanese Regional Economy and Industrial Structure toward 2030- What industries will drive the regional economic growth? -

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

国内11地域の地域間取引を導入した多地域計量経済産業連関モデルを利用して、地域別の経済・産業展望を実施した。当所のマクロ経済展望の標準ケース（2010～30年で国内経済が年率1.0％の経済成長）の下で、各地域の経済成長率は、最も高い首都圏（1.4％）から最も低い北海道（0.1％）まで1％ポイント以上の差異が生じる。人口減少率が相対的に小さく、他地域の生産増の影響を強く受ける首都圏や中部等の経済成長率が相対的に高くなる一方で、人口減少が大きく、他地域の生産増の恩恵を受けにくい構造を持つ北海道の経済成長率は相対的に低くなることが分かった。産業別にみると、堅調な世界経済の前提の下で、輸出の増加が見込まれる機械産業が地域経済成長を下支えし、特に機械産業のウエイトが高い中部、北関東では成長の牽引役となる。この一方で、首都圏、関西では、商業・金融・保険・不動産、対事業所サービス等の非製造業が成長を牽引し、沖縄も人口増加を背景に非製造業主導の経済成長を遂げるという結果が得られた。

概要 （英文）

This report presents an outlook for the Japanese regional economy and industrial structure toward 2030, considering the impact of the population decline which is a risk factor for regional economic growth. We employ a framework of regional-econometric model embedding inter-regional input-output structure.
The results of forecasting show that all regions in Japan will keep the economic growth until 2030 with the higher labor productivity derived from the increase of the capital stock through the recovery of investment demand. The economic growth rates of the regions have a wide distribution between the highest Tokyo Metropolitan area(1.4%) and the lowest Hokkaido (0.1%), and the gap reaches more than 1% point. The high growth regions have relatively small population decline and apt to reap the induced demand of production expansion in other regions, while low growth regions face the larger population decline and are the less interdependent of other regions.
As for the industrial structure, the machinery industry will underpin the economic growth in all regions, and strongly will drive growth in Chubu and North-Kanto which have the large accumulation of the machinery industry. Meanwhile in the metropolitan area and Kansai, the expansion of non-manufacturing industries such as business services will drive the economic growth. Okinawa will also achieves the economic growth by the exclusively expansion of non-manufacturing industries under the population growth. Our results show that the regional economy has the variety of growth pattern depending on the difference of the industrial structure and interdependence of regional economies. Thought each regions has the different leading industries, it is important for the economic growth in each region to attract investment to these industries through the improvement of the investment environment by means of the deregulation and tax system reform.

報告者

キーワード